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Document the default poverty measure: absolute, before housing costs - #534

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docs/default-poverty-measure
Sep 29, 2026
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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
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docs/default-poverty-measure

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Sep 28, 2026 •

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Fixes #533

Adds "Which measure to headline" to the Poverty section of docs/outputs.md:

  • Default. In the UK, PolicyEngine headlines absolute poverty before housing costs (absolute_bhc, in_poverty_bhc). The section also lists the other measures calculate_uk_poverty_rates and calculate_us_poverty_rates return.
  • Why not relative. It measures inequality: policyengine-uk's relative line is 60% of each simulation's own median (see in_relative_poverty_bhc), so a reform that raises the median raises the line.
  • Why not after housing costs. It subtracts housing spending, much of which is discretionary, and international poverty statistics use income before housing costs.
  • The absolute line itself. It is HBAI's: 60% of median income in a fixed reference year, held constant in real terms (household.poverty.absolute_poverty_threshold_bhc / _ahc). Since March 2026 DWP uses FYE 2025 as the reference year for FYE 2022 onward: £431.69 BHC / £373.89 AHC a week (HBAI table 2.4ts). policyengine-uk follows the same split from 2.102.3 (Rebase absolute poverty line to HBAI's FYE 2025 reference year policyengine-uk#1889). The pin bump that brings it to policyengine.py is Bump policyengine-uk to 2.102.3 for the FYE 2025 absolute poverty line #536 (issue Bump policyengine-uk to pick up the FYE 2025 absolute poverty line #535); merge this PR with or after it. Earlier versions use the FYE 2011 line.

Docs and changelog only; no code changes. ruff format --check and ruff check pass.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

docs/outputs.md gains a 'Which measure to headline' section under Poverty. It
says PolicyEngine headlines absolute poverty before housing costs in the UK
(absolute_bhc), lists the other measures calculate_uk_poverty_rates and
calculate_us_poverty_rates return, and gives the reasons. Relative poverty
tracks inequality: the line is 60% of each simulation's own median, so it moves
with the reform. After-housing-costs measures subtract housing spending, much of
it discretionary.

It also documents the absolute line itself: HBAI's FYE 2011 line uprated by
CPI. DWP moved its reference year to FYE 2025 in March 2026, so rates on this
line are lower than DWP's current absolute figures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…line'

HBAI's absolute reference year is FYE 2025 from FYE 2022 (March 2026
release): 60% of the unrounded FYE 2025 medians, 431.69 BHC / 373.89 AHC
a week (HBAI table 2.4ts). policyengine-uk follows the same split from
2.102.3 (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#1889); say so, and that earlier
versions use the FYE 2011 line throughout.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review September 29, 2026 16:34
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis merged commit be24687 into main Sep 29, 2026
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Merged on Max's go (decision d512, 2026-09-29), after #536. It documents his standing default, absolute poverty before housing costs (decision d509), and the FYE 2025 line that #536 ships.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the docs/default-poverty-measure branch September 29, 2026 16:34
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Document the default poverty measure: absolute, before housing costs

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