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Add stable_translog transition function - #101

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Translog whose squares and interactions are evaluated on soft-clipped states
g(x) = x / (1 + |x/s|^p)^(1/p), linear part untouched. Iterated transitions stay
bounded under the fixed-matrix, bounded-forcing theorem in the revised design; this
is not a general certificate for a composed stochastic model.

Design note: docs/superpowers/specs/2026-10-16-stable-translog-design.md
Plan: docs/superpowers/plans/2026-10-16-stable-translog.md

Motivation: in the health-cognition application the estimated psychological-capacity
translog has an unstable fixed point at -2.2, inside the data range; forward
predictions without measurements can diverge. The supplied diagnostic claims do
not establish that every likelihood value or gradient is unaffected; estimation and
simulation with the changed law must be checked separately.

Tests: unit tests for clipping, boundedness, identity, JIT/grad, a 200-period
iteration with the estimated coefficients, allow-list registration, and a CHS
likelihood smoke test.

Stacked on missing-observed-factors (branched from its local head 94aa213, which
is not yet pushed, so that commit appears in this diff). The round-1 closure audit
is still open; this PR is opened before it closes.

https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k

hmgaudecker and others added 5 commits October 16, 2026 07:26
…al factors

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Y3CuwvNUhYTSpriKYSwqmq
Squares and interactions are evaluated on g(x) = x / (1 + |x/s|^p)^(1/p),
so the base nonlinear remainder is bounded; full-law conditions are documented.
Parameter layout, names and identity constraints are those of translog.

Includes the design spec, plan and round-0 audit sources under docs/superpowers.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k
process_model binds keyword-only configuration of built-in transitions
(stable_translog's scale/power) at their defaults, so dags does not expose
them as inputs of the transition DAG.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k
@codecov

codecov Bot commented Oct 16, 2026 •

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Codecov Report

❌ Patch coverage is 80.71834% with 102 lines in your changes missing coverage. Please review.
⚠️ Please upload report for BASE (missing-observed-factors@4ddc39c). Learn more about missing BASE report.

Files with missing lines Patch % Lines
tests/stable_translog_reference.py 30.61% 102 Missing ⚠️
Additional details and impacted files
@@                     Coverage Diff                     @@
##             missing-observed-factors     #101   +/-   ##
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  Coverage                            ?   95.42%           
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  Files                               ?      148           
  Lines                               ?    15178           
  Branches                            ?        0           
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  Hits                                ?    14484           
  Misses                              ?      694           
  Partials                            ?        0           

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hmgaudecker and others added 3 commits October 16, 2026 11:19
Native closure log, base-versus-head resource report and the completion
record for the round-1 closure audit.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k
…runners

The three estimation tests in tests/test_chs_estimate.py take about four
minutes each and dominated the twenty-minute suite. Each now runs in its own
ubuntu job; the rest shard on every OS deselects them. Coverage uploads
from the four Linux jobs are merged by codecov.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k
…F3 tests

Run the reviewer's paired kernel benchmark natively and add a workload-level
likelihood timing; add the endogenous same-law contribution/gradient test and the
sigma-weighted moment reconstruction test; keep mutant transcripts; update the
design's test description and the completion record.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_017psXwkMuDeVmTu5WgoM26k
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